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Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Greece and ambiguity

Europe's fight to make Greece. pay in full seems stupid to me. I have heard the political complexities involved in a 30-50% haircut in their debt. But the risks to the European project (which is also mysterious to me) seem greater.

The EU is at the same place now as the old Articles of Confederation but without a James Madison to light the way forward.

The best solution for stability is a grand compromise, which is what the Obama wants.

But in a world increasingly without trends, it seems likely that Grec-ambiguity will continue and worsen.

If there is no grand compromise, then I expect the Greeks to begin printing and digitizing their own euros and nationalizing their banks to keep them from being under the thumb of the ECB.  

Or there could also instead be a little compromise that gives all parties to this squabble more breathing room.