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Friday, April 24, 2015

Our Ant-Trends world: the case of oil prices

It all looked so good...price of oil was falling in large part thanks to Saudi Arabia pumping furiously. Their goals: hurt Russia and Iran who back Assad in Syria (also but maybe not primarily, to slow shale oil in the U.S.). With Iraq, Libya, etc. also online, prices seemed destined to fall dramatically.,

But then came Yemen, Saudi bombs, and the laughable Iranian navy. Or not. By merely stationing Iranian vessels nearby, the potential for a wider clash seems greater.

Point: the reality of more oil is almost less important than gestures or statements made which threaten the supply. Fostering trends today and later takes huge effort but can be easily upset. Expect vacillation between the impacts of reality (e.g. so-called laws of supply and demand) and virtual reality.